The Contractor shall: 4.1.1. Evaluate the effectiveness of the inclusion of various independent variables in the predictive equations for the categories of HURF and the Excise Tax. 4.1.2. Develop a comprehensive list of risks to the revenue categories. 4.1.3. Develop econometric models that account for the risks identified. 4.1.4. Ensure the results of the model produce an array of probabilistic outcomes and not just a singular forecast. 4.1.5. Ensure models developed consider one-time and ongoing changes, including but not limited to the impact of the following factors on the revenue streams of HURF and the Excise Tax in future years: the impacts of climate; the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and other alternative fuel vehicles; population growth; the increase in the adoption of telework; business cycles; public health outbreaks; inflation; trade policy; shift in driving behaviors. Factors are at the discretion of the Department. 4.1.6. Develop a process for annual forecasting using the new models. The Contractor shall: 4.1.6.1. Define what information is required to perform annual updates to the models. 4.1.6.2. Create procedures, sources, and roles and responsibilities for gathering the annual update information. 4.1.6.3. Create templates for the annual RAP Panel session. Templates shall include but not be limited to: independent variable history and baseline forecast, RAP workshop workbook for panelists, panelist input sheets and information booklets, aggregate panelist output with comparison of current year and past year independent variable forecasts...
