Specifications include, but are not limited to: provide technical assistance to support investigation of the origins of the Rainbow Trout for a duration of three years; Milestone 1-1 Analyze existing data from Mill Creek RBT and sculpin, Creston Hatchery RBT, hatchery fish food, and water samples in determining hatchery, stream, or unknown origin of stream-captured rainbow trout and posterior probability for correct assignment. Different classification models (e.g. LDA, QDA, CART, and random forest) will be tested for highest classification success and stable results. Models will be applied with all combination of predictor variables (to optimize model fit and performance.); Milestone 1-2 Analyze existing data to determine when escapement from Creston Hatchery to Mill Creek occurs from known Creston Hatchery natal origin RBT. Using the individual fish that classification models determined originated in the hatchery, otolith microstructure analysis will be applied to determine 1) estimated age at escape (days) 2) average daily growth increment widths (um) in hatchery, and after escapement to Mill Creek; Milestone 1-3 Validate hatchery v. wild fish. Analyze existing data to determine the relative contribution of Rainbow trout food v. water in hatcher-reared rainbow trout otolith cores. See Kennedy et al. 2000 and Doubleday et al. 2013 for examples.; Milestone 1-4 Using the data and analyses from the previous contract and Milestone 1-1 prepare and submit a manuscript to a peer-reviewed journal.
