Task 1. Review current industry practices for analyzing the effectiveness of behavioral countermeasures to identify promising analytic methods (including inferential statistics and modeling), especially those that can address concerns over regression to the mean and common data limitations in assessments of behavioral change. Surveys should not be used to accomplish this task. Task 2. Propose methods for evaluating behavioral countermeasures via a CMF, including scoring metrics (e.g., study design, data, statistical methodology) and context (e.g., temporal, spatial, demographic effects). The outcome should be modeled after the CMF Clearinghouse star quality rating, which indicates the quality of or confidence in the results of the study producing the CMF. As part of this task, the research team shall (1) evaluate the relevance of the CMF rating method outlined in NCHRP Project 17-72 “Update of Crash Modification Factors for the Highway Safety Manual” to behavioral countermeasures and (2) consider changes in effectiveness over time.
